What a weekend for football fans! After a long season, we're looking at a rematch of the 2023 Super Bowl—what are the odds? While the playoffs kept us on the edge of our seats, let's switch gears and dive into what's happening in the financial markets.
Highlights from Last Week
Housing Market Bright Spot
Existing home sales surprised us by climbing for the third straight month, up 2.2% in December. While sales are still slower than historical averages, it's encouraging to see some momentum!
Jobless Claims Edge Higher
Initial jobless claims ticked up slightly to 223,000. While this is a bit above the recent average, it's not a major cause for concern—seasonal adjustments and temporary factors could be at play.
Manufacturing Shows Growth
The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI showed some softening overall, but manufacturing managed to cross back into expansion territory with a slight increase to 50.1.
LEI Signals Caution
The U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) dipped 0.1% in December, signaling potential caution ahead. Declines in manufacturing orders and a slight rise in unemployment claims contributed to the drop.
Markets at a Glance
Equities Rally Globally
International markets led the charge last week, helped by a softer U.S. dollar and better-than-expected tariff news. Earnings season also got off to a solid start, with 80% of S&P 500 companies beating their estimates so far.
Bonds Stay Steady
Treasury yields barely budged, with minor increases in the 5-year and 10-year notes. Overall, fixed-income markets were calm as investors digested economic data.
What's Coming This Week
It's shaping up to be a busy one:
- Tuesday (January 28): The Consumer Confidence Index for January is set to show modest improvement.
- Wednesday (January 29): The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision, with no changes expected.
- Thursday (January 30): Fourth-quarter GDP data will provide insight into economic growth, with signs of a slowdown likely.
- Friday (January 31): We'll close out the week with personal income and spending reports, both expected to show gains.
The Bottom Line
Mixed economic signals can feel overwhelming, but it's all about perspective. Whether you're tracking equities, bonds, or broader economic trends, staying informed is key to making thoughtful financial decisions.
Tom Hine is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and owner of Capital Wealth Management. He works with individuals and families on financial planning, retirement strategies, and investment management. With offices in Glastonbury and Wilton, CT, Tom serves clients across Connecticut and throughout the U.S. Connect with Tom
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