Let's break down the latest market trends and give you a quick overview of what happened last week and what's on the radar this week.
What Happened Last Week
Big Comeback for Hiring
November saw a strong rebound in hiring after October's slowdown caused by weather disruptions. The labor market still looks healthy, with nonfarm payrolls growing by 227,000 jobs—beating expectations.
Manufacturing Picks Up
Manufacturer confidence climbed thanks to a bump in new orders. The ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 48.4, a pleasant surprise compared to last month's 46.5.
Tech Leads the Charge
The Nasdaq Composite outperformed last week, driven by the "Magnificent Seven" (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla). These tech giants accounted for the lion's share of the S&P 500's gains. Meanwhile, the Dow lagged slightly, down 0.53%.
Yield Curve Movement
Treasury yields barely budged, though we saw some slight steepening. The 2-year Treasury yield fell to 4.1%, while the 30-year yield closed at 4.33%.
What to Watch This Week
Inflation takes center stage! Here's what's coming:
- Monday, December 9: The New York Fed releases its one-year inflation expectations.
- Tuesday, December 10: Watch for updates on small business optimism. Any uptick could signal growing economic strength.
- Wednesday, December 11: The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show inflation ticking up slightly to 2.7%.
- Thursday, December 12: The Producer Price Index (PPI) will offer more insight into pricing trends.
Quick Advice: Planning for the Unexpected
Last week's market updates show how quickly things can change—whether it's hiring rebounds or shifts in inflation. Consider these tips to keep your financial footing steady:
- Review Your Budget: Use these insights to adjust for potential cost-of-living changes.
- Keep Your Emergency Fund Ready: A strong labor market today doesn't guarantee tomorrow. Aim for 3–6 months of essential expenses saved.
Disclosures: This material is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.
Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million. One basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent. One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.
Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Every investor's situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Any opinions are those of the author, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice.